TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
San Antonio, TX
2025-04-03
America/Chicago
| Competitor | Tip Type | Odds | Units | Result | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Hodges | Win | 70-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | Event: 2025-04-03 - ⛳ PGA VALERO Texas Open PGA Valero Texas Open It was widely reported of his rib problems in previous events. I like to take notice from all the stories I read whether it is aplayer with lower back issues or shoulders or wrist injuries, it all matters in GOLF, even LUDVIG tooka bit of recovery time woth his KNEE. It all has to be taken into consideration. HODGES can start with the pack and 3 of the last 4 winners have been up near the top leading, he did show last week that his ribs are vetter with a solid showing of 68, 69, 66 & 65. IN ALL HIS 6 events HE has been under par (-12, -13, -2, -9, -4, -12). Playing incredibly well. Also is a winner on the PGA TOUR plus 2 x Top 10s in 2025 add to his credibility along with 6 events in 2025 making all 6 cuts. Only 25% of the field can spruik that. A positive on Day 1 may well be he Tees off in the Group with MATT KUCHAR he has a very good record over a long time on this course, it may be beneficial. I have had a little bit extra on HODGES in all markets as he looks good $$$ and has proven he can hang with the better players consistently too. Top 5 @ $15.50, Top 10 @ $7.60 & Top 20 @ $4. costs only an extra $1 so for HODGES $4 in play but could be a banking result with a smuch as $97.10 on offer total. I am also wary of JT POSTON who I have NOT backed but he will pop up somewhere soon. Win Odds: WIN x1.00 PGA Valero Texas Open It was widely reported of his rib problems in previous events. I like to take notice from all the stories I read whether it is aplayer with lower back issues or shoulders or wrist injuries, it all matters in GOLF, even LUDVIG tooka bit of recovery time woth his KNEE. It all has to be taken into consideration. HODGES can start with the pack and 3 of the last 4 winners have been up near the top leading, he did show last week that his ribs are vetter with a solid showing of 68, 69, 66 & 65. IN ALL HIS 6 events HE has been under par (-12, -13, -2, -9, -4, -12). Playing incredibly well. Also is a winner on the PGA TOUR plus 2 x Top 10s in 2025 add to his credibility along with 6 events in 2025 making all 6 cuts. Only 25% of the field can spruik that. A positive on Day 1 may well be he Tees off in the Group with MATT KUCHAR he has a very good record over a long time on this course, it may be beneficial. I have had a little bit extra on HODGES in all markets as he looks good $$$ and has proven he can hang with the better players consistently too. Top 5 @ $15.50, Top 10 @ $7.60 & Top 20 @ $4. costs only an extra $1 so for HODGES $4 in play but could be a banking result with a smuch as $97.10 on offer total. I am also wary of JT POSTON who I have NOT backed but he will pop up somewhere soon. Win Odds: WIN x1.00 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | Top 20 | 6.4-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | HAS TO RUN 🔥 THIS WEEK: PGA Valero Texas Open Currently #16 in GIR (Greens in Regulation which he has a 70.89% meaning he has hit 319 Greens over 450 holes. To give you an idea someone like SEPP STRAKA sits @ 73.25% and sits as #2, my man NICK TAYLOR not far away in #7 hitting 72.22% GIR. Note the Top 10 in GIR have won 5 PGA events in 2025 & another in the Top 10 @ #9 TAYLOR PENDRITH has his foot firmly on the till to win one soon. Other players well worth mentioning are JJ SPAUN another winner in 2025 currently in #13 & COLIN MORIKAWA #14, COREY CONNERS who has met with truck loads of money for this event is #18. Although EVR has 2 x PGA Wins to his name his form is just starting to turn now with 1 x Top 10 in 2025 he has consistently hit 67, 68 in 2025. I feel he is trending up now he just needs a HOTTER PUTTER but his SG Total sound @ #80, SG OFF TEE @ #60 & 59th SG x APPROACH TO GREENS. simply put $1 with a possible return of $6.40, odds via Betfair. |
| Alejandro Tosti | Top 20 | 9.9-1 | 1.00 | WIN | VALUE + 🚀: PGA Valero Texas Open If you have been paying attention over the last 6 months than ALEJANDRO has ben on my radar not only in DPWT but PGA. Last week he was good with his Putter (-15) as he was playing in one of the final groups and as I tuned in to watch MWL win his 1st there were some notable efforts such as TOSTI and afew back in the pack. In 2025 in PGA events from 8 starts he already has 2 x Top 10s. He either keeps his form going or suffers from the hangover affect. Crazy odds for a player who carded -15 last week. $1 out for a possible $9.90 on Betfair, he also 55th in SG TEE to GREEN & 46TH OFF the TEE & 33rd around the Greens. He PUTTED very well last week. |
| Rico Hoey | Win | 100-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | Event: 2025-04-03 - ⛳ PGA VALERO Texas Open PGA Valero Texas Open I am purposefully following HOEY as he has been in my sections on and off for the last 12 months as he is pretty rock solid especially on PAR 5s (ranked 7th) but it is what you see from him in most events, consistency and he is slowly improving his stats overall across all factors. HOEY also can hit the ball long, like the young brigade including MIN WOO LEE, last week on his way to winning he hit 2 on the fairway that were the longest in course history. It helps especially like HOEY can strike the ball well (2ND IN SG OFF THE TEE) including 45th SG-Approach to GREEN, his putting is okay as he ranks closer to 200th but he does offset being #2 in TEE TO GREEN. That is significant. Is he a BIRDIE KING (NO) but he can hold his own as apparent with some good placing so far in 2025. I have my own little stable of players and honestly do very well off them and RICO can lurk here but my BIG PUSH is LEE HODGES. ***No play on Top 5 just Top 10 @ $8.80 & Top 20 @ $4.60. so only $3 out (3 x $1). Win Odds: WIN x1.00 PGA Valero Texas Open I am purposefully following HOEY as he has been in my sections on and off for the last 12 months as he is pretty rock solid especially on PAR 5s (ranked 7th) but it is what you see from him in most events, consistency and he is slowly improving his stats overall across all factors. HOEY also can hit the ball long, like the young brigade including MIN WOO LEE, last week on his way to winning he hit 2 on the fairway that were the longest in course history. It helps especially like HOEY can strike the ball well (2ND IN SG OFF THE TEE) including 45th SG-Approach to GREEN, his putting is okay as he ranks closer to 200th but he does offset being #2 in TEE TO GREEN. That is significant. Is he a BIRDIE KING (NO) but he can hold his own as apparent with some good placing so far in 2025. I have my own little stable of players and honestly do very well off them and RICO can lurk here but my BIG PUSH is LEE HODGES. ***No play on Top 5 just Top 10 @ $8.80 & Top 20 @ $4.60. so only $3 out (3 x $1). Win Odds: WIN x1.00 |
| Victor Perez | Top 20 | 4.9-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | TRENDING 💡: PGA Valero Texas Open This Frenchman will win this year on PGA Tour, he can be hard to catch and if you have kept a close eye on my picks he has been in there 30% of the time. Of the 7 events he has played he has finished in the TOP 25 x 3. He has made 5 cuts and missed 2 (MC) from the 7 but he has slowly been trending up just like MWL last week, in his last 12 rounds he has finished 10 of them better than 70. That is suited very well around here, he has gone EVEN, -12, -3 & -10 last week in a consistent showing over the 4 days (66. 69. 70 & 65). Many experts-Analysts will advise look at the last day only for the future, sure but it is over 4 days, I like a player to recover from an ordinary day and improve well by 4 to 6 shots the next. PEREZ may not have won yet on PGA but he has 6 x 1sts INTERNATIONALLY & is showing in 2025 he deserves to be here in PGA, reminds me off DETRY the way he is building. |
| Sami Valimaki | Top 20 | 6.6-1 | 1.00 | WIN | IN FORM 💪: PGA Valero Texas Open NO STRANGER to me as I was tipping the FIN over the last few years across European events. Off the Top of my head cannot recall the event but we backed him @ $750 and he finished hard to place 2nd. He is a winner of 6 x International events @ the tender age of 26. Of late though he probably is suited to BIGGER COURSES where drivers of the ball really come into their own but that being said he has made 6 CUTS in the 8 events so far in 2025 with the only real blemish being @ The PLAYERS (many flunked there). But he did card 62 on Day 4 last week & only 3 shots off from a possible WIN so his -17 should give him a SUPER BOOST of confidence. These younger players get out after it. 4 of his last 5 he has sat TOP 50 & his current approach game near the GREENS he sits #16 & his putter doing fine ranked @ #16. He has proven he can TEE off well in 2025 so I am sure this weaker stat will improve-progress. I am sticking with inform players who have very good podium finishes not those on hype who are under $50 to WIN but IMO have no chance. Great LAY plays this week. |
| Maverick McNealy | Win | 48-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | Event: 2025-04-03 - ⛳ PGA VALERO Texas Open PGA Valero Texas Open Price wise we are getting a haircut on McNealy but he does sit in Positive territory in all 4 very significant stats in GOLF. SG Total-49th A very rounded player but usually when more of the Top 30 WORLD Players are in attendance (only 15 of the Top 40 are here for this as most resting for the US MASTERS next week) but he generally will start between $65 to $90 in usual events. (hence the haircut). He has however in 2025 had good results such as T8, T9, 2nd, last week in Texas a 32nd. My only concern is he can often start slow & what I mean by that he generally will improve into each day picking up a few shots so as long as he is nt too far behind he should sit high in Strokes gained each day. Top 10 @ $5.90, he is also $11.50 for a Top 5 just in case you are considering $1 there & Top 20 is @ $3.25 so if you are playing 3 markets the Top 20 result will cover the 3 x $1 outlay. PGA Valero Texas Open Price wise we are getting a haircut on McNealy but he does sit in Positive territory in all 4 very significant stats in GOLF. SG Total-49th A very rounded player but usually when more of the Top 30 WORLD Players are in attendance (only 15 of the Top 40 are here for this as most resting for the US MASTERS next week) but he generally will start between $65 to $90 in usual events. (hence the haircut). He has however in 2025 had good results such as T8, T9, 2nd, last week in Texas a 32nd. My only concern is he can often start slow & what I mean by that he generally will improve into each day picking up a few shots so as long as he is nt too far behind he should sit high in Strokes gained each day. Top 10 @ $5.90, he is also $11.50 for a Top 5 just in case you are considering $1 there & Top 20 is @ $3.25 so if you are playing 3 markets the Top 20 result will cover the 3 x $1 outlay. |
| Henrik Norlander | Top 20 | 7.4-1 | 1.00 | WIN | ✈︠UNDER THE RADAR: PGA Valero Texas Open The swede we have picked a few time in 2024 & in the odd event he has spiked and been up there giving us hope at odds between $500 to $1000. He generally like most of the players not in the TOP 50 drop off but he is in the same group as SAM RYDER who I am expecting to play maybe Top 30 & RYAN FOX who played super well last week, however he missed 2 easy Putts on the final Day (pressure?). HENRIK is the one flying under the radar as he ranks 106th on FedEx points yet is currently very very high in 4th in amajor stat for this course being SG -APRROACH the GREEN, 39th TEE to GREEN & overall in SG (strokes gained total) is 55th, I cannot recall a time ever in his career he is playing so well. The FAVS in this and last years winner (who we tipped mind you) AKSHAY BHATIA sits behind him. 100% flying under the radar, he can start cold but if he is Top 10 1st day look out. |
| Gary Woodland | Win | 60-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | STRONG FINISHER 🤞: I have been following Woodland since his strong finish of T2 @ Houston (TEXAS Childrens Open) His best most recent finish was a -4 (66) 2 x Sundays ago @ the Charles Schwab Challenge to finish in a share of 11th place after firing in 72, 67, 69 & 66. It was another slow start that really is his achilles heel in 2025. At the Charles Schwab he led by his play on the greens where he ranked 2nd for the tournament in SG: Putting. This was Woodlands best putting season since 2020 thus far has led to 5 x Top 25s, currently sits in 80th SG: T2G (Tee to Green) + his DRIVING accuracy is only @ 57% (348 fairways hit of 608) his placement is better in GIR @ 65.78%. Closer to 70% is more ideal in GIR however Woddland has improved these stats in 2025. ***It is his usual slow starts that cost him but if he can hang with the field early then Moving Day (day 3) & 4 could see him charge up the leaderboard. $1 on Betfair for evey $95 plus to cover the play then a Top 20 is essential @ $4.50, the only play resulted is the WIN. |
| Tom Hoge | Top 20 | 5.3-1 | 1.00 | WIN | THE STAT ðŸÂŒï¸Ââ€Â♂ï¸Â: PGA Valero Texas Open Not going to mince my words, he can strike the ball very well and his IRON play sublime and sits @ #14 in SG APPROACH to the GREEN, He has proved his Putter can run hotter than his stats suggest. Finally broke through for his PGA Win in 2024 & has 2 x Top 10s in 2025. Plays with EVR so hoping they both do well in their group, from memory EVR did lead this one year with -8 the first day, fell off the cliff the other 3 but EVR is playing better now. I GOTTA SEE Hoge up the top early, he is not a chaser. His ball placement should favour him this week. Its a lower $1 out for a possible return of $5.30. Hoge as an example on Sportsbet is $4.30 for same odds @ $5.30 on Betfair and most drift on the exchange anyway. You can get $3.75 with most Bookies online for TOP 20 Including ties. |
| Matteo Manassero | Top 20 | 8.8-1 | 1.00 | LOSS | GROSS OVERS 🤞: PGA Valero Texas Open I had to include the Italian Maestro. Despte him finishing 39th last week with a -7 he really gritted the course out & he really only has one blemish in his last 7 & that was only a +3. I used to back him heaps over on the DPWT as he could get on a roll and birdie 4 or 5 holes, he is that capable, there is atheme here this week in players who have won so many OVERSEAS. Mattao has an Impressive 8 x 1sts INTERNATIONALLY and he really is playing grinding golf, he can surprise a few and Top 20 here. Of course the odds are what attracted me but I have been secretly absorbing what he is doing each week, Overs for mine, should be like $5.50 to $6. |
| #Tips | Wins | Strike Rate | Units | Net Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 4 | 36.36% | 11.00 | 18.20 | 165.45% |
