| Ewen Ferguson |
Win |
65-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
ON SONG
One thing we can be sure of is if this Golfer from Glasgow is on song like I predict he will possibly be one of the early leaders on Day 1 (lets hope) but his T5 last week with -15 showed he is getting back to the 67s I know he is capable of every day.
- Last week he was 5th overall with a scoring Avg of 68.25.
- 22nd in Par 4 scoring (this week has 11 x Par 4s)
- 36th OTT (Off the Tee)
- 26th SG: APG (Approach the Green)
- 14th SG: T2G (Tee to Green)
- 31st GIR with 70% (Greens In Regulation)
- 34th in SG: PUT
His stats improved and you have to follow with confidence, it was only back from March to Late June the Scot had 8 x straight finishes with the best of those being a T17, T2 & T4.
A winner of 3 x DPWT he is no stranger to winning and a golden rule I try to follow is players consistently hitting 70% of Greens.
All 5 SG Metrics in POSITIVE territory last week and to be blunt it boasted more Top 50 OWGR players, it has to matter & he did also hit 65% of Fairways last week which whilst he is not a +300 yard driver of the ball ( his Avg is 270 yards) I like Accuracy over distance.
With so many players under $100 to win this week (28 Players) which still equates to 18% of the Player Pool.
I just do not see any value on Day 1 in CONNERS (terrific PGA form) + HARRY HALL (terrific Putter) & of course if we see Value it will come out in the form of a Late Mail notification.
|
| Eugenio Chacarra |
Win |
85-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
ON THE REBOUND:
A few events back I tipped this Spaniard who like REITAN, COUVRA made some noise on this DP Tour earlier in the year.
Like a few players as well he rebounded last week with a measured -9 which saw him be more consistent than previous events with 69, 71, 69, 70 but what impressed me was he got back to his best skill which is ARG.
CHACARRA hs never really had a problem with his PUTTER (10 of his lst 12 events) saw him in Positive SG, it is OTT that he can sometimes struggle with but generally he does sit on Avg in the Top 60 Off the Tee, last week he dropped to 55% Accuracy which he will need to find closer to 65 to 70% of Fairways and the rest can take care of itself.
This Spaniard cut his teeth on the ASA (Asian Tour) where late in 2024 he strung together finishes of T14, T5, T6, T5 and his very first DPWT event he was 20th @ KENYA Open,he then did what many cannot and WON on his 2nd ever DP event when 1st @ HERO INDIAN Open.
Notables he beat SADDIER (5th) possibly the most in form player currently on DPWT but did beat 90 % of this field.
Day 1 will tell us much about his mindset, I have gone heavy on Players with good ARG & PUTTING credentials due to the fast greens here & also I like the fact he has 12 of his last 16 rounds @ PAR or BETTER.
BOGEY avoidance will be key this week.
Hoping he gets back to what we saw some of last week.
|
| Ugo Coussaud |
Win |
150-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
HOME ADVANTAGE
This home course Frenchman will either surprise or more likely Run Top 20 so if you want Safe you can get around $6 now to Top 20.
He is my GUT INSTINCT player this week as I have been watching his play for most of 2025 as he has promised so much but just struggles to score a low 60 day, unlike REITAN who has shot low 60s multiple times, UGO will either rise to this home venet or cook under the Pressure.
On face vale though-
Last week we had a CUT after 36 holes then another after 54 holes. After 3 days UGO was sitting @ 8th in SG: PUTT.
His best most recent result was @ OMEGA European Masters which was a course similar in layout & he played all his Junior & earlier career Golf around French courses but in the Swiss Alps he really showed fight with 69, 65, 65, 68.
Most of the Top 10 from the OMEGA Masters are not present this week & whilst UGO sits in 76th for the R2DR ( The Top 70) will play in the Final feature in November so whilst he is on the cusp of being there he will be keen to maintain.
I keep referring to the OMEGA but his strongest skill being the Putter let him down but he made up for it being:
- 17th in Scoring Average @ 66.75 strokes
- 23rd in Par 4 scoring ( this course in France is Par 4 heavy)
- 21st in Bogeys with only 1.75 each Day (if you keep that very low then Birdies add up quicker)
- 19th in SG: T2G
- 6th in GIR @ 81.94% ( Excellent stat)
Unfortunately his preferred weapon of choice, his Putter let him down.
Back home he either rises to the OCCASION or crashes, he will be eager though to perform in keeping that Top 70 in sight, A big Target seeing he is yet to Win on DPWT, he did win on the feeder organisation (Challenge)
More consistent than you may think as he has made the CUT in 18 of his last 25 events and in that 18 he boasts 9 x Top 20s (50% is good).
Betfair
Win @ $150
Fair price currently but I have seen $190 come and go on betfair so you can always set your price and see if you get matched, I have put in some crazy prices over the years.
As advised he either performs crashes at home, he is ready to break through and if he handles the pressure then we can see him figure, If you are like me and you cover your play then Top 20 is around $5, like usual no $$$ in Pool but 7 to $8 more realistic.
|
| Casey Jarvis |
Win |
160-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
YOUNG GUN
22 yr old JARVIS is like many of the talented young brigade shining through ( we have tipped KAZUMA KOBORI, KEITA NAKAJIMA, MARTIN COUVRA) just to name a few but COUVRA & NAKAJIMA have won on tour and well KAZUMA nearly shocked the world including himself recently @ British Masters (T2).
JARVIS though often sits high early at each event then he has you pulling your hair out with double Bogeys etc, He did the erratic performance back to back @ British Masters & Danish Open before steadying last week in England with a -9.
His 4 days explained it well as he started well with a 65, 74, 73 & back to better 67 to end the tournament. He is very much like KEITA NAKAJIMA who is brilliant on some days with -10 etc but that middle 74 & 73 was 9 shots over the Average Strokes (69 was Avg). Luckily his PUTTER proved the difference on at least 2 of the 4 days but he did sit in-
2nd in SG: PUT (that's huge)
11th in BIRDIES with 5.25 on Avg each round ( its a shame he was 97th in Bogeys) giving back 3.50 shots each round.
19th in SG: OTT
24th in Driving Accuracy @ 70%
Both his APG & ARG play was simply terrible, he ranked 119th in APG & 125th Around the Green, if it was not for his 2nd in PUTTING its remarkable he finished with a -9.
You would not know it until you dissect his stats but his last 3 events have seen consistent finishes of -9, -6 & -7, in those 3 events he has 7 of the 12 rounds averaging 67, that will go a long way here on the Par 71.
CASEY just needs to put all 4 days together, he did the same @ AMGEN Irish Open Won by RORY but CJ went 69, 72. 68, 73 ( as you can see 2 days cost him on Avg 7 shots) yet he did much better
on Approach.
29th in SG: APG
44th in SG: ARG
Both are vast differences from his 119th & 125th, he did struggle OTT but as you can see with his hit & miss mentality (I wrote much about the mental struggles of SEAN CROCKER) & CJ seems to struggle with that side of the game.
Honestly, how hard is it to put 4 consistent days together?????? If CJ can replicate his 69, 67, 70, 67 @ OMEGA European Masters I will be happy, at some point DO NOT BE SHOCKED if he ends up leading on Day 1 or 2, he can come out scorching at times. I just want a measured CJ this week.
He will win one of these in 2025, so why not here, His current odds fair as he can be very Hit & Miss.
|
| Adrian Otaegui |
Win |
190-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
THE GRINDER
I call this player from the UAE a project of mine, at some events earlier in 2025 he was often around $35 to $50 before Tee off.
I have only backed him once before due to him always BEING UNDERS IMO, yet he has already won 5 x DPWT & he needs to improve on his current ranking of 113th in R2DR he is however trending UP of late so I find his current $190 & drifting value.
Last week in England I saw a bit of what I saw earlier and he fought really hard with solid showings on all 4 days, 67, 71, 69, 68, the last 2 rounds he could have even improved as he missed a few birdies by millimeters as one actually hit the flagstick (or Pin), had his caddie pulled the flagstick out, he grabs a birdie (Pin in or out when Putting?)
37th in Birdies with 4.50 Birdies per round
15th in Bogeys giving bak only 1.50 shots pre round
Top 25 in all Par 3, 4 & 5 scoring
22nd in Par 4 scoring (again highlighting this course has so many Par 4s)
only 47th in SG: OTT yet he was 3rd in Driving Accuracy with a very high 78.57% of FAIRWAYS hit (that's incredibly high)
10th in SG: APG
6th in SG: T2G
3rd in GIR with another high 76.4&% Green in Regulation (compared to Winner Alex Noren who sat @ 77%)
3rd in Scrambling (ARG Around the Green)
His 89th in SG: PUT was his downfall but despite having an ordinary Putter he still was only 6 shots of Noren who Won with a -19 v -13, had his Putter even gone on Avg 1.5 strokes gained per round he levels it up.
Of note Adrian normally has a safe game around the Greens including Putting.
He needs results to improve the 113th in R2DR, a Win here can leapfrog him into the Top 50.
|
| Clement Sordet |
Win |
180-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Another Frenchman and it was ROZNER v SORDET, Rozner I have tipped a few times & honestly that grinding style has worn me out, Rozner does all the SG: Stats well he just never seems to go beyond though.
Also ROZNER this week is @ $60 & when I tipped him @ Omega European Masters he was $85, He was a solid T33 and he again backed that up last week with a T31 and we did advise on how he
had made 16 straight CUTS (15 x PGA) so we know he is solid, another string candidate for the CUT MADE markets.
SORDET on the flip side seems to play more aggressive style Golf, he will risk a shot or 2 as where ROZNER plays to the averages better, he is a safe play.
I just think SORDET is more likely to break through at home in front of family & friends, another who has grown up playing the FAST Greens here, further adding he has gone 8 x straight positive SG events with his Putter, Pretty impressive, all on the DP World Tour.
CS had yet to taste victory on DPWT but he has 5 x 1sts on the feeder Tour (Challenge Tour) and his last 8 events he has made the CUT in 7 with his best result being the T5 ITALIAN Open, the very red hot ADRIEN SADDIER Won but of note SORDET shot the best over days with a sharp 62 (Day 3) so we know he can go low.
Last week he bypassed England, not a bad idea to be nice & fresh for France as he was again rock solid @ AMGEN Irish Open with a T15, I mentioned he has gone 8 x straight events with SG: PUT in Positives strokes, he was only 50th in Ireland but he did not set up his shots either as he was 46th in SG :APG so his approach a little off which makes his result better as he did not lean on his greatest strength.In Ireland whether he was more focused on improving his OTT game.
I say this as he was surprisingly better than his usual as he was-
18th in SG: OTT
15th in Driving Accuracy (70% of Fairways hit)
300 Yards on Avg in Driving distance
It is a strange twist as normally he is good ARG and Putting, perhaps he is ready to put it all together, Now I have 2 locals so my hope that playing @ home is not too much for them but
I am relying on the fact that SORDET is better than most with his Putter, include the very fast greens and maybe a local will read it better than the visitors?
|
| Darren Fichardt |
Win |
370-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
DARK HORSE
DF could be the real dark horse here.
At the tender age of 50 this SAR has been mixing it up on Seniors tour, AFR (Sunshine Tour) along with of course the DPWT, he has 24 x 1sts in Total since turning Pro, with (5 x DPWT) the last being
in his home Country, The JOBURG Open in 2017.
I say Dark horse, as you cannot beat experience and even though he is ranked 93rd in R2DR, I do not think he is under pressure as he has other Tours he is eligible to play in so this is not do or die.
Even after 24 Wins in his career he is not really a "STATS man" & what I mean by this is, He is not known as a Great Driver of the Ball or a Great Iron Player or even a Great Putter, he tends to and has always flown under the radar, he is not a STAND OUT player that is easily identified like RORY who is a great driver of the Ball, DF just goes about his business very tradesman like, he puts all the little factors of getting under Par together.
In 2 of his last 3 x DPWT events he made the CUT but he proved he was NOT there to make up the numbers ( he was a Category 10 to make it on the Entry List) thanks to his 2024 efforts is he able to Play here, a T13 @ British Masters (-8) with days of 71, 72, 68, 69 & T5 last week in England with a massive TREND UP with a -15 with days of 67, 70, 68, 68 & DF was only 4 shots off the winner yet he goes around @ +$300 here is crazy, hence the dark horse here.
Lets focus on the most recent form reference being the BMW PGA in England where he was-
2nd in Par 4 scoring
5th in Bogeys- only giving back 1.50 shots per round v he was solid in 11th x Birdies picking up 5.25 per round
7th in Driving Accuracy with 76.8% Fairways Hit
6th in GIR with an excellent 75% Greens in Regulation
39th in SG: ARG
7th in SG: PUT
Of course I am banking on DF peaking & praying last week was not the peak but if current form is anything to go on he would have to take a lot of encouragement out of last week. He is not
a player looking for form like a few here, I will keep a close eye on him from the start as he Tees off in Group 6 nice & early, hopefully his group is on pace.
|
| Yannik Paul |
Win |
350-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
OUTSIDE CHANCE
Now I will admit this German should be an outside chance but he was very good last week & he is known for his decent Putting hence why he is on my radar.
It will be tough going up against Hall, Conners, Lee and the rest of the Top 10 but PAUL has won on DPWT, in fact he won the 2022 Mallorca Open and what sticks in my mind is a low 62, not many players in their life time can say they shot 62, most can do a PB of 64 and if stretched 63 on a day where mistakes are zero & Birdies are flowing (The odd EAGLE) helps but I tipping players who are yet to Win on DPWT and this German already has won in the bag.
His best weapon is his PUTTER, 6 of his last 7 DP events have been in Positives strokes with the Putter, he missed by a mere -0.04 to make is 7 out of 7,
Last week he was a passable -7 with days of 69. 73, 70, 69 so unlike nearly 50% of the field he was able to make it through the 36 hole cut & the 54th hole cut and it again was the Putter mainly keeping him in touch with the field.
Remarkably -
4th in SG: PUT with +1.94 strokes gained per round
2nd in SG: ARG with +1.84 strokes gained per round
Unfortunately
3 x Bogeys per round dented the real impact
OTT- was poor as well which is his Crux of his game as he is giving away strokes in all of his last 7 events.
He needs to tidy this up (Off the Tee has to be be improved) but he proved with his 2nd & 4th around the Greens he can compete, The Fairways in France are pretty forgiving so I expect most players
to have decent figures, usually Players lose shots on the Green, it is the polar opposite for PAUL, even if he could get his ACCURACY OTT.
Now getting right into the stats and I mean we spent lots of time on this PAUL when 3rd in China @ Volvo Open he was an incredible-
89.29% Driving Accuracy x 4th
31st OTT
12th in SG: APG +1.38 strokes per round
17th in SG: T2G & yes even a player who normally can give away 5 shots per event off the Tee can put it together, like most of them they all have stellar days, rare but it happens.
73% GIR x Greens in Regulations
It did shock me that he was near 80% DRIVING in China but we know his strength is on the Greens, if he could just focus on the difficult OTT, he proved the 3rd back in March anything is possible.
Betfair
Win @ $350
If I can get anywhere near $400 to $500 for Fichardt and I think he is by FAR A BETTER chance than PAUL should be between $600 to $700, I will see If I can get crazy matched.
|
| Niklas Norgaard |
Win (Late Mail)
|
36-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
NEEDS PUTTER TO FIRE
No stranger to us as we have tipped him previously.
Currently 2nd in SG: PUT to lead Marcus Armitage who I do not expect to be there come day 4, Norgaard is currently picking up on Avg +2.86 strokes per round.
9th in SG: OTT
Driving Accuracy is so so but he does sit in 4th n DRIVING DISTANCE.
11th in GIR with a good 75%
His ARG (Around the Green) & is presently Cold so he can improve on this as he normally sits well in the Top 30 on the DP Tour.
He currently sits in T9 @ -5 so if he can improve slightly Around the Greens he can pick up shots with his Putter as sits in 2nd.
|
| Todd Clements |
Win (Late Mail)
|
48-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
SECOND CHANCE
Like Norgaard Clements who we have also tipped made it into my final CUT of 20 before I culled those down to the original 8 I sent out (JEFF WINTHER) was also in that final 20.
Also like the Dane CLEMENTS currently sits in T9 @ -5, both these players have current good trending stats to keep improving.
CLEMENTS currently its behind UGO COUSSARD in SG: PUT but he is @ #43 but we have seen him go as low as -8 PGA Barracuda hence why he was chosen previously as he is one of the current Top 10 that still has a very low score in him.
He still sits a few shots off the leader and his DRIVING game can only but improve being in the bottom half of the field, however, he sits in-
1st in SG: APG so off the back of solid Iron shots he is placing well & this reflects by hitting over 80% of GIR (Greens in regulation).
He has always been in my own player rotation & he did make my cut of final 20 so you cannot back them all but that Top 20 before the final cut to 8 has a truck load of current Top 10 players so something we are working on to hopefully identify patterns. The final 2 CUTS have way too many players up competing for the spoils.
|
| Jens Dantorp |
Win (Late Mail)
|
65-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
NEEDS TO GO ON WITH IT
I tipped this SWEDE a few times previously due to his GREENS play, he often bobs up in the middle days (2 & 3), he is yet to deliver a WIN for us but around the Greens he has better skills than most.
Evident on the FAST SLICK Greens here-
4th in SG: PUT picking up +2.66 strikes on Average each day.
What stands out more so is his current-
12th in Par 3 scoring &
13th in Par 4 scoring.
Also sits in Top 50 for SG: OTT (Off the Tee) which has never been a strength so his accuracy is saving him this weekend @ 35th with only 55% of FAIRWAYS found.
6th in GIR @ 78% of Greens in Regulation, always a preferred stat of mine anyway.
He just needs to maintain on Day 3
|
| Gavin Green |
Win (Late Mail)
|
220-1 |
1.00 |
LOSS |
WE LIKE OUR ROUGHIES
This American I put in the same category as SEAN CROCKER,they can play good golf but it is their mental game that often lets them down.
This week though whilst GREEN is 12th in SG: PUT he is actually rounding out the 36 holes with very limited errors, unlike many he sits in 2nd in Bogeys Avg only 1 per day.
If he can maintain very minimal mistakes as most so far are on 5 to 6 bogeys it would be no surprise to see him figure, He also sits in Top 15 in both Pr 3 & 4 soring and his
SG: ARG play is rock solid being 4th but he also sits in 2nd in SCRAMBLING.
At silly odds IF HE CAN prove me wrong and stick to a good game plan WITH that 2nd in Bogeys he can improve from his sa69 & 69 each day, I mean he sits in T19 @ -4, there will be plenty
of players moving on DAY 3 I can only hope he pushes himself a little but stick to his current plan, its working.
Prepared to risk at odds, he is around $3.50 to TOP 20 which @ $220 to WIN is pathetic unders on Betfair, so will save my $1 ( X Your Multiplier).
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