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Procore Championship 2025

Course

Silverado Resort (North Course)

Location

Napa County, CA

Date

11 September 2025 5:00 pm AEST

2025-09-11

America/Los_Angeles

Event Analysis

Mixed bag market with the USA Ryder Cup big guns deciding to play

Yeehah – we return to the PGA this weekend.

The DPWT is so volatile, players can swing wildly in between 7 to 10 shots each day, It is crazy.
It is NOT UNCOMMON to see a 63 one day followed by a 75 🙈

One of our Players, Daniel Brown got most of our Outlay back with his Top 10 last week which also paid the Top 20.

HOWEVER we again got 5 of the 7 players through to DAY 3
, No one stood up and Brown lost the plot one one day that cost us BIG time as did LOWRY & HATTON.

Oh by the Way, I erased Christiaan Bezuidenhout from my Player rotation as honestly I could have played left handed and produced a better effort. We are getting the players through but…

I did see RORY drift out to $8 at one point & I guess what we have been saying and is known to be true is WHERE DO YOU GO when  a player shoots a 62 or similar?

History has shown us in at least 80% of those occasions those shooting the lights out with course records rarely hang around to Win. Call them one-day wonders if you will. They make me cringe.

This week would normally see most of the Top 50 in OWGR play overseas but in an annoying shock the USA RYDER Cup team have decided to have a hit out-bonding session @ the PROCORE.

Again SCHEFFLER stifles betting markets (yawn)

What to expect this week over 4 days?

The Course-

Silverado Resort, North Course
Napa, California, USA
Par 72
7,138 yards during tournament week.

Stewart Cink (2020) & Sahith Theegala (2023) hold the tournament scoring record at 21 under par.

**If you like reading comeback stories then check the good article out on PGA website regarding the injury and mindset to return to the PGA from Sahith Theegala.

Now unlike a few courses recently the rough is not as punishing here but with Narrow Fairways we will look for those again who have good records on Greens.

Fairways-
A blend of Bermuda grass, Poa annua, and Ryegrass

Rough-
A combination of Kentucky Bluegrass and Ryegrass

Greens-
Primarily Bentgrass and Poa annua, which creates a firm and fast putting surface.

One of the best Putters & a player I have in the mix is SAM BURNS. The North Course notorious for its difficult Poa annua-Bentgrass putting surfaces. Burns, who leads the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting, He also opened with a 64 & 65 back in 2020 & T7 the following year in 2021. He then missed (DNP) in 2022, 2023 & 2024.

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.
Competitor Tip Type Odds Units Result Rationale
Collin Morikawa Win 20-1 1.00 LOSS

WIN CHANCE — FORM + T2G EDGE:

New course for Morikawa but a low-pressure setup with attention on others. Profile fits tight fairways and GIR golf.

  • +SG: OTT in 8 of last 9; 13th OTT season rank.
  • 2nd SG: Tee-to-Green, 3rd SG: Approach.
  • Putting trending: positive in 10 of last 25; nine small negatives (~-0.24) otherwise.
  • GIR ~70%; Driving accuracy ranked 5th on Tour.

Market: BF win ~$26.

Harris English Win 21-1 1.00 LOSS

CONSISTENT ALL-AROUND SG:

Recent form solid and trending with multiple top finishes. Top-40 across most SG metrics. Not elite OTT but gains on approach and around the green offset it.

  • Recent: T13 Tour Champ (late Aug), T12 BMW, T48 St Jude, T22 Scottish.

Market: BF win ~$44.

Russell Henley Top 5 4.5-1 1.00 LOSS

HIGH FLOOR IRON PLAY:

Prefers control courses. Safer ceiling than JT this week. Recent sample shows spikes without full 4-round closure.

  • Travellers T2 (68-68-61-69); St Jude solid.
  • 2025: 10× Top-10, 1 win; only 2 other Top-25 from 18 starts but 16 cuts made (~89%).

Market: BF Top-5 ~$4.50. Low pool liquidity noted.

Sam Burns Top 10 3-1 1.00 LOSS

PUTTER #1 ON TOUR:

Leaderboard wobble risk, but profile suits a Top-10 floor when irons cooperate.

  • BMW T4: 9th SG: OTT +1.409; 14th SG: APP +2.539; 2nd SG: PUT +7.955; T4 SG: Total +11.708.
  • Tour Champ: APP dipped (-0.995) yet ARG +1.799 showed balance.
  • ~68% GIR; >60% fairways. If APP ticks up, putting converts.

Market: BF Top-10 ~$3. Monitor early rounds.

Akshay Bhatia Top 10 4-1 1.00 LOSS

FORM REBOUND + MINDSET SHIFT:

Volatile mid-season patch, then trended up with steadier four-round outputs. Ceiling evident.

  • T3 at THE PLAYERS; 18 cuts made from 24 (1 WD).
  • Tour Champ rounds: 66-67-69-68. Prior BMW bookended by 75/72 with strong middle.
  • Two PGA Tour wins at age 23; finished FedEx T13.

Market: BF Top-10 ~$4.

Emiliano Grillo Top 20 5-1 1.00 WIN

FRINGE UPSIDE IN WEAKER FIELDS:

Trending since the U.S. Open where all SG metrics were positive. Often spikes when fields thin, but depth here caps win equity.

  • Top-65 across SG categories; 32nd SG: Putting.
  • Recent: T20 Myrtle Beach, T16 Charles Schwab, T24 RBC Canada; nearly won John Deere.

Market: BF Top-20 ~$5 (thin liquidity). Value modest.

Mackenzie Hughes Top 20 5-1 1.00 WIN

BOUNCE-BACK CANDIDATE:

Results mixed, but day-level stats show hidden form. Proven spikes in 2025.

  • Recent skid: 4 MC; best T27 in last 10.
  • Earlier: 10th Houston, T3 RBC Heritage (-14), T2 Myrtle Beach (-15, lost playoff).
  • 17th SG: Around-the-Green. [ADD: putting trend or % positives last 25]

Market: BF Top-20 ~$5 (liquidity low). Price looks short vs win odds (~$340).

#Tips Wins Strike Rate Units Net Profit ROI
7 2 28.57% 7.00 3.00 42.86%