Sanderson Farms Championship 2025

CONSISTENT

This Argentinian is peaking at the right time with a T4 @ Procore Championships carding-16 with super consistency over all 4 days with 68,69,69,66.

Grillo also boasts amazing stats when making the Cut in his PGA Career, to date one of the higher SR % @ 75% over 266 events. It is a personal Favourite of mine as most players sit in between the 50-55% SR just to make it through to Day 3.

The goal is to get as many of our selections into Day 3 & so far in 2024 Grillo has played in 24 events making the CUT in 18 for 9 x Top 25s included in those a 2nd & 2 x Top 10s with 2 Top 5s coming in his last 6 events & another Impressive stat appears that in the 18 CUTS made those 9 x Top 25s have him @ a high 50% SR to finish within the Top 25.

In his last event What we saw @ NAPA was a -6 (66) on Day 4 but what stands out is his overall SG (Strokes Gained) as he was Top 20 in all SG Metrics with-

19th in SG: Off The Tee
17th in SG: Approach to Green
25th in SG: Around The Green
14th in SG: Putting
T2 in SG: Total with 4.306 strokes gained on Day 4 Only.

As mentioned in the Course Summary this course players will score highly each Day so the Greens are very large and the Targets are easy, Grillo@ NAPA was 83% GIR (Greens in Regulation) with his -6 on Day 4 but over 72 holes he was rock solod @ 76% GIR.

The previous winning scores here are usually between -22 & -25, so we want a Player to convert Birdies so the Avg will need to be around -6 each & every Day but we will see scores between -7 & -10 on the earlier Days with Players playing "OUT OF THEIR SKIN", Consistency will be rewarded, That is where Mr Grillo comes into his own.

Now that Grillo has rocketed into the Top 100 (#61 on FedEx Points) he has secured his 2026 & can play nice & loose here, Expecting him to go close.

PAST WINNER

57th in SG: Off The Tee
51st in SG: Approach to Green
1st in SG: Around The Green
4th in SG: Putting with 7.768 strokes gained.
T7 in SG: Total = 11.182 strokes gained.

Unlike Grillo, Hughes often does play mid field with his driver, his overall T2G (Tee to Green) over his last 25 events has shown 50% positives strokes which the correlation is his strength ARG so unlike the trickier courses Hughes would struggle but with nice big Open Fairways he only needs to focus on his ability to hit far because he can go as long as 340 yards on Avg with most Pros often around the 270 to 290 yards.

The goal for Hughes this week is to smash off the tee, get on the green and let his strongest skill go to work, His GIR is from @ 67% (Last event) he often sits between 70-75% GIR but to give you an idea @ Napa he had 20 Birdies to the Winner, Scott Scheffler who had 26, it is only an Avg of 1.5 birdies each day, very achievable figure on this far easier course.

There is mostly a mix of Players in Current form and players who course fit @ Jackson due to their ability to convert Birdies on the Green.

Hughes is also very safe now @ #65 in FedEx points and surprisingly @ #69 in OWGR, there is no pressure cooker to try and qualify with "X" finish here, he has sealed his 2026 events up already. The pressure cooker goes only 2 ways, Players struggle or thrive, not much in between & if we have learnt anything in Golf, it is a player can dramatically shift his play from each day to the next.

Finally I thought Hughes should be around the price of Grillo as he has been on a steady improving curve with a -14 & -10 in 2 of his last 3 events, Normally he will hold form for 5 events
and had terrific form from March to late May this year with Podium finishes in 3 of 4 events being a 10th,T3,T2.

His last 3 starts @ Jackson has yielded him a 1st & 8th last year to Kevin Yu.

WILDCARD

The Finn we have tipped previously when a strong T2 @ DPWT European Masters won by Thriston Lawrence who has been very hot & cold before the Win and after.

The WILDCARD is because this young Finn can be very unpredictable OTT(Off the Tee) like most when he is on song he can produce good efforts, The T2 in Europe would be what I consider a stronger field overall and he was in a position to challenge on Day 4 but Lawrence actually held it all together for the Win.

Around this course which is very forgiving OTT I think Valimaki can pick up 3 to 4 strokes on the Avg player in this field as this course DOES NOT SUIT BIG hitters WHO CANNOT PUTT,I compared players like Taylor Montgomery & Hayden Springer with Valimaki, all 3 players are good with the PUTTER, however Valimaki is in better form IMO.

Overall PGA stats for the Finn include-

145th in SG: Off The Tee
20th in SG: Approach to Green
134th in SG: Around The Green
10th in SG: Putting of all PGA players
43rd in SG: Total mainly due to his Approach Play and reliable Putter, Imagine if he could be more Positive OTT & actually slicker ARG.

Again I highlight the relative ease of this course & with those Par 4s I mention if you can get onto the Green in 2 and sink the 3rd those birdies should add up and we will quickly see what players are HOT with the Putter as I expect to see -5 to -6 on the front 9 by the better know Putters on Tour.

I had to confirm this but Valimaki had a stroke Avg @ 65 for the difficult course high in the Alps, Also on Day 3 in Switzerland he did shoot 62 so he can go low & 65 & 66 do not seem a hard ask as I like when a player improves into each day like he did with 67,66,62 & rounded it out with a 65.

He did also play far better OTT with 45th but better 75% Accuracy which was over 4 days so he is capable & a crazy 15th overall in T2G (Tee to Green) picking up +1.68 stokes each Day
on Avg, SO IF WE GET THAT FINN look out and notable Top 50 OWGR were well behind him there.

The elephant in the room is his most recent CUT @ Napa (Procore) with a 73 & 71, looking through his usual results he has finished 26 rounds in PGA from 42 rounds(62%) under 70 which is usually -1 or -2 & he does have some very low 60s in those 26 rounds, also validating why he is a selection he has had 6 x Top 25s from 21 events including 2 x Top 10s (PGA).

He will need to push this weekend as he currently sits @ #87 in FedEx & although already qualified for 2026 events there is also the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5, Safe to sit in the Top 100 but Top 50 qualifies for all the Bigger events.

He is the WILDCARD, we just need the good version of him turn up like the T2 &T8 in Europe from his last 3 events there, if he is on fire in the first round, sit back & enjoy the ride.

FEEL GOOD STORY

You may say LANTO who?

Well his Feel good story (his recent hardships on Tour with family etc etc) came to the fore with an Impressive 3rd @ Procore Championships carding 65,70,71,65 for -17 but if you were like me and watched the event, we witnessed determination as he was down a few times but rallied back & his -7 on Day 4 showed he is good enough to mix it up with the likes of USA Ryder Cup team mates Scott Scheffler & Ben Griffin (1st & 2nd) & only 1 & 2 shots ahead of LANTO.

Just on that "DOWN A FEW TIMES" he had 4 bogeys on Day 3 and honestly most players would have said I surrender, he was resilient & the bounce back from the 71 to 65 showed he could reset over night.

At Napa and yes it is the most poignant form reference as it is the most current but Lanto was good over 4 days-

63rd in SG: Off The Tee
9th in SG: Approach to Green
T21 in SG: Around The Green
1st in SG: Putting picking up +8.943 strokes
3rd in SG: Total = 14.182 strokes gained.

A few SG Metrics will help around this easier course in that LANTO is normally ranked @ #83 in Putting amongst all PGA players, a deeper dive into his SG: Putting shows us that in 6 of his
last 9 events they have all been in Positive strokes, was the Anomaly the 1st @ NAPA ? I doubt it as I watched all 4 days and the Greens were faster there and behind him were players in the ELITE Putting calibre of Sam Burns & Cameron Young & if you saw some crazy putting from Young last week in the RYDER Cup you know LANTO must be going good.

We want the momentum to keep going for the 1 x winner on Tour (there is 50% of this line up still who are winless on PGA Tour), strong form pointers leading into this with 3 of his last 4 events showing for a T14, T23 & 3rd. There is no reason why he cannot keep resulting on this easier layout.

Currently @ #142 in FedEx points & 100th in FedEx Fall he really needs a Podium Finish to crack that Top 80 to 90, he is progressing well to do so.

Of course why wouldn't you sprinkle a bit of cash on him @ $140, going as good as Bhatia, Min Woo Lee & Davis Thompson but 500% better price.

MAIDEN WINNER

Most would know COLE is yet to Win on Tour and although he was not as consistent as CAM YOUNG before he finally broke through this event is far easier than what YOUNG broke through for his maiden Victory.

COLE has amassed 14 x Top 10 finishes in his career from 101 events with 8 x Top 52 and include 2 x 2nds, those 2nds could have easily resulted in 1sts as he lost to Chris Kirk in a Playoff @ Honda Classic, of note KIRK has won 6 on PGA Tour & the other 2nd was @ 2023 ZOZO Championships, Won by Colin Morikawa (he did win by 6 shots) but like Young, Cole is a Bona fide chance of winning on the PGA Tour, even in that 2023 year he went 2 X 2nds, 7 x Top 10s & 14 x Top 25s.

Every year he still continues to make CUTS @ each event, he has a high 70% SR to make it into Day 3 for beyond 36 holes & that is high on my priority as the goal is to get as many picks through to Day 3 so they can earn.

COLE has ben steady of late with fringe results @ Wyndham & 3M after having an injury issue with his well known type 1 diabetes & Addison's disease, he withdrew in June when actually @ T14 @ the Travelers after 3 straight days in the 60s, he usually manages it well but he was quoted in Media that it got the better of him, he is feeling better and that will eventually flow onto the golf course.

His strength is the mighty LONG STICK, in 12 of his last 16 events (including 9 straight events) he was in Positive SG metrics in SG: Putting, so he has not lost any of that skill & he is currently @ 54TH in PUTTING, this has at as high as Top 20 so he is healthier and his stats will keep improving without question

COLE is in Group 2 to Tee off with SAMI VALIMAKI & JOSEPH BRAMLETT, all 3 are better than the Avg player around greens, this will only assist all 3 as each will see where to Putt to hole
it, it is an advantage.

Currently sitting @ #80 in FedEx points which is remarkable considering of the last 7 events he only finished in 3, Injury & health were major factors of those results, he to my eye is on the other side of the mending & as any Sports Psychologist will tell you, HEALTHY MIND, HEALTHY BODY, Cole can put his health worries behind him and we know the man can play & we know he can grind as he has battled the Auto Immune diseases as a complete Professional.

Golf has so many GOOD WARM FUZZY feeling stories, I would love to see COLE Salute so Yes he will carry a few bob @ $150, why NOT, I make it a habit of having something on all players for the just in case, even if small.

POINT TO PROVE

The Englishman we were following & he has a reputation of being hot & cold, not like a Thriston Lawence hot & very cold (we did tip him only a few events before he won) & Wallace has been in that Category that he looks likely to Win and like a racehorse who needs a head gear change of blinkers to keep the focus on.

It a worrying trend with Wallace & why he is firmly in my Top 20 only as we have strong evidence to prove his lack of concentration is there as he is one of only a handful of players who has Positive Strokes Gained over the last 6 months (Total), yet he has only had T3 @ 3M Open & T2 @ OMEGA Masters (See Sami Valimaki) & I can highlight though that Wallace dug deep in the Swiss Alps & e finally saw 4 days of consistent golf from him.

Many thought he should have been in the European RYDER Cup team but again you have to be consistent for a length of time but in Switzerland he was 1st in BIRDIES, that will suit here and he was 8th in BOGEY AVOIDANCE with oy Avg 1.5 per round, this is an easy course so he should strut his birdies here as he was also a high 6th in Par 4 scoring, remember those 7 easy Par
4s @ Jackson?, His overall skill set is around all Metrics, he can lean on decent SG Stats of-

115th in SG: Off The Tee
43rd in SG: T2G so you can see that Greens play dramatically improve the overall.
93rd in SG: Approach to Green
1st in SG: Around The Green
58th in SG: Putting picking up +8.943 strokes
32nd in SG: Total

**1st in SG: ARG is huge for this course, where 50% of the field will struggle he can pick up strokes each day.

Wallace does seem to play his better Golf in Europe (over his career)but he is bypassing the DPWT event this weekend (does have a few good eggs there) & he will need to result well as he sits @ #92 in FedEx points, I reference this a lot, well more so than usual as the FALL events have qualifying ramifications & players actually on Day 4 can see on BIG ELECTRIC boards where they are in the POINT CHASE and it even has where they need to finish.

It really can affect players, the pressure to push shots when they normally would not, case in point recently was MAX HOMA, he was in the PRESSURE COOKER, took its toll on him but he is slowly working back into form and sits in #111, that was @ #350 only back in June around VALERO Open, HOMA had 5 straight MC(Missed Cuts). It is why I have left HOMA alone this weekend as he is only around 50% to make Cuts in 2025, that number has push closer to 70% as it can.

So WALLACE may have a point to prove as he was talked about in RYDER Cup conversations?

To be fair finally he does have 10 x straight finishes so he can finish all 4 days (proven) however it is his concentration that becomes the concern, I'm happy to stick to Top 20 & I am buoyed knowing that he is another that makes more CUTS than most (61% of CUTS made in all of his PGA Career)he also has 11 x International 1sts along with his sole 1 x PGA Win.

VETERAN COMEBACK

If you have been with us for a while than KUCHAR was on the radar and in my player rotation and he actually has been cruising along in the background with some very jaw dropping results of late, enough for me to notice and then pray not this weekend please.

He still goes around @ +$200 to Win & honestly he nearly made into the Top WIN cut, you know what Ill be saying next???

Of course I will be backing him on the side to Win & this week like the PROCORE should have been until the RYDER Cup team turned up, there is SO MUCH VALUE, You could see 20 players on top of the leader board and not really be that surprised, there are so much value.

KUCHAR has been around, he is a veteran (only 47) of this great game now with 576 events done & dusted, this is where it proves how strong over 24 years since turning Pro.

In that 576 events over 24 years MK has made 72% of CUTS, that is an insane stat.

If we are looking at players that can give us the best possible chance to make it into Day 3 then KUCHAR is leading the parade, Even crazier he has made 12 CUTS in his last 14 events which all have been in 2025 for a staggering 85.7% Strike rate, include his last 3 results in 4 events of -16, -4 & -10, All of the good results were in stronger/deeper fields than what he meets here (for ref John Deere, Wyndham & Procore).

His overall stats shining bright @-

141st in SG: Off The Tee
88th in SG: T2G (Tee to Green)
81st in SG: Approach to Green
18th in SG: Around The Green
20th in SG: Putting

Of note MK can put his stronger skill set of Around the Greens as he now has positive SG Metrics in all 12 of his last 12 events, Positive SG metric in SG Approach the Green in 7 of those last 12 events before cranking the Putter up with 9 of his last 12 all showing Positives strokes gained, that is significant.

Already a winner of 9 x PGA events + a few other 1sts he does bring a stack of experience but also a calming presence as he has been there done that attitude and he can back that up with a strong 119 x Top 10s (SR @ 21%) which 25% is good and +30% in excellent but he also has 63 x Top 5s (11%) that includes 15 x 2nds so sometimes when the young cannot hold their composure a VETERAN in the background is cruising along and before anyone realises he sis up in the Top 10 of the leader board.

Can he Win? Yes he can, there a few young very unpredictable players like HIGGO,THORBJORNSEN,HOEY who are in the market but can also be erratic at times, At a Win price of +$200 you do not have to twist my arm to have a small investment to Win outright.

Unlike most here he obviously does not do it for the money (banked $62 Million on PGA Alone) and although MK sits in 127th in FedEx points I doubt it is high on his list to qualify as he can play in the Seniors/Masters Tour, not that I think he should, he just has options and all the interviews I have seen of him not much seems to faze him, hopefully he starts well and he gets the spring in his step to keep up with that young energy on Tour.

Black Booker

In all of these selections you really could make a case for most even Matt Wallace to Win, this field is wide Open and I honestly do not get the majority of players quoted under $40, there are form players at triple the odds including LANTO GRIFFIN.

EVR from South Africa has been flying the flag well for all Afrikaners and we selected him when he finished 2nd @ Barracuda Championships at the end of July, I will say it he SHOULD HAVE WON, the eventual winner RYAN GERARD was incredibly FLUKEY, even a SLICER off the Tee on 16 hit a branch of a tree and bounced back onto the fairway, any other course he goes onto the other fairway out of bounds and incurs a penalty, GERARD was pulling off some incredible (still fluky) Putts but it does highlight how much luck is required even if a golfer is playing well.

This often GOOFY dressing sweet swinger of an Iron (his Approach) play is his usual weapon if choice. At the Barracuda-

T35 in Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (40/56)
T7 Greens in Regulation @ 76.39% (55/72)
13th in Scrambling 70.59% (12/17)
T19 Putts per GIR with 1.69 strokes gained

He had 3 x Eagles, 18 x Birdies, 11 x Pars & only 2 x Bogeys, outstanding play.

I have been following EVR as after the Barracuda his form tapered off but he was struggling with a back Injury, he withdrew from the Wyndham Championships in August, he was struggling but he returned over on the DPWT a month later and was CUT @ OMEGA Masters before looking much more free in his swing @ the AMGEN Irish Open with a T56, he made it through all 4 days finishing +1 under Par, player who has been in dazzling form in Europe MARCO PENGE finished Even Par.

It was a watch and see at his next start which was @ BMW Championships he showed rapid improvement with a T24 @ -11, He started slow with a 72 then followed it up with a 70,66,69 with those last 3 days all in SG: Positive strokes and looking at Players who finished around him were RORY @ -12, ABERG @ -12, RAHM @ -13 so he was in great company.

Hopefully his back remains healthy as it was @ BMW & he returns back to the USA where he did finish 2nd @ CJ BYRON with terrific days of 66,67,65,63 to back up his 2nd @ Barracuda, we know EVR can play, now he is back on the mend and his fitness should be better. he can figure in the placings.